🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from inside knowledge of American actions. Changing Odds in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion rose in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which registered on the site in December and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Trading information shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However these probabilities had increased to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in betting activity immediately prior to the social media post was made. "That trade has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher. Several of other individuals also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule presented on recently would prevent public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to politics. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Insider trading is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the prediction market arena. A company executive for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."