From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”