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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."