Is the Entertainment Fading? This Drop of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer goals from open-play situations than at this stage last season.

A major talking point of the Premier League season so far is the drop of goals scored in open-play scenarios and how teams have been scoring increasingly from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Looking at how goals have been scored to matchday 11 last season, we see 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer overall.

If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal teams are taking reveal a remarkable 370 fewer in open-play than this time last time out.

And despite the significant rise in set-piece goals, we've actually seen a mere two extra attempts created from them excluding spot-kicks, showing how effective sides are at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball situations.

Goal Averages Reveal the Tale

301 total goals scored in 110 games up to now works out at 2.74 scores per game, if maintained for the whole season would be the lowest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69).

Yet merely under 200 goals scored in open play equates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the smallest for 16 years, from 16 years ago (1.76).

That campaign is also the only Premier League campaign to see scoring more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).

Which Sides Are Most Responsible?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the most significant decrease, registering a mere four in 11 games, 10 less than this point last season.

Outside of Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in open-play scoring is largely a London thing, with five out of the city's seven teams netting five or more fewer goals from open-play than last season.

To be fair, this is mainly because their scoring numerous scores at the early stages of last season as opposed to them really struggling to score in open play this season.

Meanwhile Manchester City have recorded the biggest increase, with all but one of the 23 they've scored this season originating in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared the promoted teams with the relegated sides they took the place of. Sunderland the Black Cats have scored an additional three scores in open play than the Saints managed in their first 11 games on their way to demotion the previous campaign.

In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (excluding spot-kicks), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the largest rise, with the two clubs replacing the five less scores that they've produced in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.

United have scored double the number goals from set-plays as they did in the 11 games the previous campaign ahead of the manager took over, while the Black Cats again are more effective at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

City seem unaware of the trend about netting additional goals from set-plays, since they've scored three fewer than last season, as have Forest, though that might be down to the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.

Overall Patterns

Six clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been this season's primary examples by scoring fewer goals from open-play and more from set-plays, while Man City represent the unique club to buck the trend so far by performing the complete reverse.

It remains to be seen to watch if clubs carry on to place such emphasis on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they find again their overall inventiveness and start netting more goals in open-play as well.

Marissa Miller
Marissa Miller

A passionate tech journalist and gamer with over a decade of experience covering emerging trends and innovations.