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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|