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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.