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At first, Trump seemed to embrace a firm stance concerning Ukraine. Following making statements of "significant consequences" during the summer if Russia's president continued hindering truce talks, the former president finally enacted considerable restrictions on the Russian primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially impacted Putin's ability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

However, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, that was developed by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU participation, he has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would effectively favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the plan actually weaken that very sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump continues to consider the war as a basic land disagreement, like giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about dominating a damaged area of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in position the presently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to capture in more than a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

This region is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that constitute a key barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, giving Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv in case he subsequently decide to restart the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would enable additional fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan places no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as Nazis, the plan declares: "Any Nazi ideology and practices must be rejected and prohibited." As if to highlight this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the plan includes Russia promise not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its position of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached comparable treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured territory in the region to the government – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Putin now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "strong coordinated armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the details include unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent member states from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the security presence, presumptively headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

A separate parallel deal according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "major, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. But in contrast to a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, including Trump, to react militarily to Putin's attacks, something they have {not